Development trend and prospect prediction analysis

2022-09-21
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Analysis on the development trend and prospect prediction of China's environmental monitoring industry

Abstract: without monitoring, there is no way to detect water, gas and soil, and it is impossible to evaluate the effect of environmental prevention and control and supervise the remediation of pollution sources. At the same time, if a country wants to better grasp environmental information, it must rely on its own environmental monitoring. It is for this reason that the state has focused on building its own environmental monitoring network since the 12th Five Year Plan period

the monitoring industry is the foundation of the entire environmental protection industry. If there is no monitoring, there is no way to detect water, gas and soil, and it is impossible to evaluate the effect of environmental prevention and control and supervise the remediation of pollution sources. At the same time, if a country wants to better grasp environmental information, it must rely on its own environmental monitoring. It is for this reason that the state has focused on building its own environmental monitoring network since the 12th Five Year Plan period. In general, the state-controlled monitoring system has been basically established during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, and the main task of the "13th five year plan" is to further improve the entire monitoring system and gradually sink to the provincial and municipal level monitoring. In the long run, the monitoring system will cover all links of the industry. Therefore, environmental monitoring is the basis of the whole environmental protection

there are many subdivisions of environmental monitoring, involving various sub fields of environmental protection. Environmental monitoring is divided into environmental protection monitoring and pollution source monitoring. The main purpose of environmental quality monitoring is to assess the results of environmental protection and environmental quality. The monitoring objects include atmospheric monitoring, water monitoring, soil monitoring and noise monitoring. The main purpose of pollution source monitoring is to control the discharge of harmful substances. The monitoring objects include waste water monitoring, waste gas monitoring and heavy metal monitoring. In environmental quality monitoring, atmospheric monitoring mainly starts from national control points (mainly administrative units above the prefecture level) and gradually sinks to provincial control points (mainly county-level administrative units) and rural air monitoring. Water quality monitoring is divided into surface water monitoring and groundwater monitoring: surface water monitoring includes major rivers, lakes and seas, centralized water sources, offshore waters, etc. It is mainly composed of national surface water quality monitoring sections. The groundwater pollution monitoring system needs to combine the existing groundwater projects such as land resources and water conservancy projects. Refer to groundwater pollution prevention and control plan for main works. Soil monitoring methods mainly include soil sampling and laboratory analysis. The Ministry of environmental protection has issued many documents to regulate soil monitoring methods and technologies. In the monitoring of pollution sources, waste (sewage) water mainly comes from the discharge of domestic sewage and industrial sewage. Domestic sewage monitoring, that is, urban sewage monitoring, mainly monitors urban drainage and sewage treatment systems. Industrial sewage monitoring mainly monitors the discharge of key polluting enterprises. In the past, the waste gas monitoring was mainly CEMS system monitoring, and later VOCs monitoring for organic pollutants was added. It mainly comes from the monitoring and distribution of industrial waste gas emission enterprises. Heavy metals are mainly discharged through industrial wastewater, waste gas and waste residue, so heavy metal monitoring is closely related to the existing industrial waste (sewage) water and waste gas monitoring

during the 12th Five Year Plan and the 13th five year plan, various national policies promoted the rapid development of the monitoring industry. However, in the whole environmental protection industry, the market volume monitored in the monitoring industry is still relatively small, and there is still much room for development. According to the data of the national environmental monitoring station, the sales volume of the monitoring industry increased from 10.8 billion in 2011 to 22.7 billion in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of about 16%. However, the overall scale is only equivalent to 8% of water treatment and 15% of solid waste treatment

in 2015, the largest source of sales composition of the monitoring industry was East China and South China, accounting for 32.4% and 24.8% respectively. This is mainly because, first of all, East China and South China are important industrial areas, and they have more demand for monitoring equipment. Secondly, East China and South China are more developed regions in terms of whether the economic ratio is higher than the standard value or lower than the standard value, and the government finance also has greater investment in monitoring. The proportion of R & D investment in the monitoring industry has increased year by year. Monitoring is a high barrier and high-tech industry. At present, in the domestic market, sophisticated equipment is still in the hands of foreign instrument companies. With the strengthening of national environmental protection and the consideration of environmental data security and cost reduction, the monitoring equipment will be gradually localized. Therefore, monitoring companies that attach importance to R & D investment and master important technologies will have greater opportunities in the future. We have summarized the data of several listed companies in the domestic monitoring industry, and the company's R & D investment is basically increasing year by year. The average R & D investment accounts for about 8% of the operating revenue. In recent years, the proportion of R & D investment has decreased slightly, mainly due to the substantial increase in its sales revenue

at present, there are about 200 enterprises engaged in environmental monitoring business in China, and most of them are engaged in the development, production, installation and operation of automatic monitoring systems for waste gas, waste water, ambient air, surface water and so on (including integrators)

among them, about 120 enterprises have production waste gas monitoring systems, and about 80 enterprises have production waste water monitoring systems. China's environmental monitoring industry has high barriers, and the embryonic form of monopoly pattern has emerged, with leading enterprises accounting for half of the country. First of all, as a technology intensive industry, the technical threshold of environmental monitoring industry is high. At present, there are only more than 200 domestic enterprises engaged in environmental monitoring. The high-end process analysis instrument market is mostly occupied by foreign-funded enterprises such as Siemens in Germany and Switzerland, which often use abb and Thermo Fisher in the United States; Domestic enterprises, such as spotlight technology and pioneer environmental protection, mainly face the medium and low-end process analysis instrument market

secondly, during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the market share of the top ten enterprises in sales revenue remained at about 60%, and the industry competition pattern has basically taken shape. And the market monopoly share is still increasing year by year. The gross profit margin of the monitoring industry is basically maintained at more than 45%, which is much higher than the gross profit margin of about 30% in the water treatment and solid waste sectors, but the gross profit margin of the monitoring industry is declining. The main reason is the increasingly fierce competition within the industry. With the intensification of competition, mergers and acquisitions within the industry will become increasingly fierce. It happens that the industry itself has high technical barriers. Therefore, for domestic environmental monitoring enterprises, the future development is both opportunities and challenges

domestic enterprises should increase research and development efforts to enhance the core competitiveness of products. On the one hand, with the public's urgent need for environmental improvement and the government's overweight or introduction of major environmental protection policies, the market space for environmental protection and environmental monitoring is increasing; On the other hand, with the increasingly fierce competition in the industry, the gross profit in the industry has generally declined. In this case, if local enterprises want to maintain competitiveness and expand market share, they must strengthen their own technology research and development or through extended mergers and acquisitions. Maintaining continuous technological innovation and trying to narrow the technological gap with foreign enterprises are the conditions for the rapid development of enterprises

by the end of 2015, a total of 3360 national ambient air quality monitoring points had been established, including 1436 "national control points". We have counted the built-up area of 338 administrative units at or above the prefecture level. Compared with the requirements set by the monitoring point cities, the number of "national control points" should be about 1400, only slightly less than 1436. According to the data of the environmental statistics bulletin, the number of "national control points" did not increase from 2013 to the end of 2015. Therefore, we believe that the "national control point" network has been built. In the 13th five year plan, the increase of monitoring points mainly comes from the "provincial control points" network dominated by county-level administrative units. According to the latest statistics, there are 2851 county-level administrative units nationwide, with an average population of 500000 people per county. Therefore, we can estimate that on average, each county-level administrative unit needs to set up two air quality inspection points. According to the data of the 2015 environmental statistics bulletin, there are 1924 air quality inspection points outside the "national control points". Therefore, it can be estimated that the increment of new air quality monitoring points during the whole "13th five year plan" period (calculated from the end of 2015) is about 3800. Our statistics on the bidding documents for air monitoring stations released by China's bidding in 2017 show that most of the air monitoring stations have a budget of 1.2-1.6 million. At the same time, referring to the procurement data of China environmental monitoring station, the average set of automatic ambient air automatic monitoring equipment is about 1.2-1.5 million. It is conservatively estimated that using the budget of 1.2 million as the benchmark, we can measure and calculate that the total incremental space of the air quality monitoring station during the 13th Five Year Plan period is about 4.5 billion, with an average of about 900million per year

the regulations on the operation and management of national air monitoring urban stations clearly stipulates that "in principle, the equipment shall be upgraded on an annual basis". Therefore, we can think that the renewal period of most air monitoring equipment is from the 5th year to the 8th year of equipment operation. According to the data of the environmental monitoring station, we can calculate that the air monitoring equipment (not only the monitoring station equipment) will usher in a large number of "machine replacement tide" in 2019, and the total number of equipment that needs to be updated every year will be about 1500. According to the number of monitoring stations we summarized and predicted above, the upgrading of state-controlled stations has begun, with about 200 sets of equipment replaced every year. The layout of provincial control points has not been completed. We predict that 3800 new provincial control points will be added during the "13th five year plan" period, compared with more than 1900 during the original "12th Five Year Plan" period. Based on these data, we believe that about 300 provincial control points need to be updated every year during the 13th Five Year Plan period. In the long run, after the completion of the "13th five year plan" and "provincial control points", the number of equipment that need to be updated every year after 2020 will exceed 700. The market space of air quality monitoring stations during the 13th Five Year Plan period is about 1.3 billion yuan per year

according to the implementation plan of national rural environmental quality monitoring, new materials are listed as one of the seven key development directions. From 2017 to 2019, environmental monitoring of 1695 villages will be added, and after 2020, environmental monitoring of more than 5000 villages will be added. It can be considered that during the "13th five year plan" period, an average of more than 560 rural stations were added every year. According to the calculation of 500000-600000 per equipment, the market increment of rural air quality monitoring during the "13th five year plan" period was 850million yuan, with an average of 280million yuan per year. In the long run, the incremental space of rural air quality monitoring market is 3.38 billion yuan

according to the data of the 2015 environmental statistics bulletin, as of the end of 2015 (the end of the 12th Five Year Plan), there were 10147 water quality monitoring sections, 4764 drinking water source monitoring points, and 894 near shore monitoring points called low cycle fatigue experiment less than 5x104

there are 972 control section points in China, 423 monitored rivers and 62 reservoirs. According to the "13th five year plan" national surface water environmental quality monitoring design scheme, during the "13th five year plan" period, in order to ensure the historical continuity of environmental monitoring data, in principle, no new monitoring sections will be set up. At the same time, the surface water monitoring during the 13th Five Year Plan period will adjust the original section. After adjustment, there are 2767 state-controlled sections (points), 1366 monitored rivers and 139 lakes and reservoirs

according to the 2015 China Environmental Statistics Bulletin of the Ministry of environmental protection, the annual wastewater discharge was 73.53 billion tons, an increase of 2.7% over 2014. The main wastewater discharge comes from urban domestic sewage. In 2015, the urban domestic sewage discharge was 53.52 billion tons, an increase of 4.9% over 2014, accounting for 72.8% of the total wastewater discharge. The discharge of industrial wastewater was 19.95 billion tons, a decrease of 2.8% over 2014

waste (sewage) water pollution and industrial sewage from domestic sewage discharge, as well as industrial enterprises

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