The most popular real estate regulation of the Sta

2022-07-23
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Supervision group of the State Council: there will be no new policies for real estate regulation. Supervision group of the State Council: there will be no new policies for real estate regulation. Introduction: the real estate regulation and supervision group of the State Council (hereinafter referred to as the supervision group) has just returned to Beijing, and the real estate market responded in August. In the view of zhuzhongyi, vice president of China Real Estate Association, the rebound was temporarily terminated and the trading volume fell slightly month on month. This is a proof that the shouting strategy of the real estate market is still effective. Press

the real estate regulation and supervision group of the State Council (hereinafter referred to as "the supervision group") has just returned to Beijing, and the real estate market reacted in August

the rebound was temporarily terminated, and the trading volume fell slightly month on month - in the view of zhuzhongyi, vice president of China Real Estate Association, this is a proof that the "shouting" strategy of the real estate market is still effective

according to the preliminary judgment made by the supervision team on the current real estate regulation, strictly implementing the existing policies can curb the pressure of the overall rebound in the real estate market. Therefore, it is not necessary to introduce new regulation policies for the time being. However, this is only the opinion of the supervision team. At present, it is not clear about the attitude and approval of the decision-making level

in the notification of the supervision team, "some cities have not yet established a pre-sale fund supervision system" was highlighted, which may become a fulcrum for the next step of "strictly implementing the existing policies"

supervision team 2) wedging effect of fulcrum: will there be new regulation policies for the opinions when the beam is under load? This is the most concerned issue in the market after the State Council sent eight inspection teams to supervise the implementation of local real estate control policies in late July

half a month after the inspection team returned to Beijing, more and more evidence showed that the property market regulation was also "stability oriented". In the report of the Xinhua News Agency on August 17, the inspection team praised some of them. While blaming some places for "relaxing regulation", it also affirmed that "various policies and measures for regulation of the real estate market have been better implemented, the regulation results have been continuously shown, and the speculative investment demand has been effectively suppressed"

people in the real estate industry generally judge that this should be the opinion of the inspection team in the final report, and the postponement of the reserve policy may be the most likely approach to be considered in the short term

this newspaper also confirmed the above judgment from a person close to the members of the supervision team. "There should be no new policy." The person told him that he learned from direct communication with members of the inspection team that the inspection team believed that as long as the existing policies were strictly implemented, it would be enough to contain the rebound pressure of the property market since May, and the new deal was not necessary for the time being. However, he also stressed that this is only the opinion of the inspection team. At present, it is not clear about the reply of the State Council

later, in an interview with Xinhua news agency, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development said that in addition to "rectifying that some areas cannot leave the experimental site midway to relax the regulation policy", it is also necessary to "closely monitor the changes in the real estate market and study the policies and measures to further strengthen the market regulation"

according to the analysis of many people in the industry, "policies and measures need to be studied" and "the market needs to be closely monitored", even if there are further policies, they will not be introduced in the short term. The trigger point lies in the development of the market in the future

and the attitude of local governments is mainly cooperation. Before and after the visit of the inspection team, the local government followed the intensive "shouting" and introduced some policies that can suppress house prices in the short term. The latest news comes from Qingdao, where it is claimed that the competent authorities will interview the development enterprises that have declared that the pre-sale price is obviously high, and the enterprises that refuse to implement it will be suspended from issuing the pre-sale license

as for the judgment of future house prices, zhuzhongyi believes that although the current pressure of price rebound still exists, it can not form the basis for judging the overall rebound of the market. Among the factors that continue to restrain the market rebound, "the attitude of the central government to restrain investment demand" and "the accountability system for the rise of house prices" are the most important two points

reassuring news came from the market: August is not over yet, but the trading volume of the property market has declined month on month. According to the data of the China Index Research Institute, the rapid increase in trading volume actually ended in July. Although more than 60% of the 40 cities monitored by the China Index Research Institute still had an increase in trading volume in that month, only Shanghai among the first tier cities continued to maintain its growth trend, and Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all declined to varying degrees

although the data of August has not been released yet, according to the calculation of yanghongxu, vice president of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, the turnover of new commercial housing in 30 cities across the country is expected to decline by about 5% month on month, and the rapid growth since May has come to an end

the dilemma of stability and control

however, the real estate industry is still troubled. The anxiety of "controlling house prices" has temporarily dissipated, but the worry of "stabilizing growth" has returned

many problems found by the inspection team are not limited to the rebound of house prices. There is another important item. "The completion rate of the housing land supply plan in some cities in the first half of the year was low, with less than 10% in some cities."

according to the notification of the Ministry of land and resources, in the first half of the year, rust and corrosion will occur in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps. 4 Set the experimental parameters: the peak value of direct thrust is 9.1t, and the number of movements is 80000; The peak value of V thrust is 15.2t, the number of movements is 80000 times and 720000 hectares, and the implementation rate of the plan is only 29.6%. The implementation rate is calculated according to the adjusted plan. The Ministry of land and Resources recently adjusted the annual housing land supply plan to 159300 hectares. If the original plan of 172600 hectares formulated at the beginning of the year is used, the implementation rate is only 27.3%

in the view of some real estate developers, such a low housing land supply rate may have buried the hidden danger of house price rebound in the next year. The shortage of land supply will lead to the shortage of new houses in the future. The result of the imbalance between supply and demand is the sharp rise of house prices

however, the local government is not unwilling to complete the land supply plan, but the lack of investment confidence of developers has directly led to the decline of land market transactions. "Hard times." A director of land and resources in the eastern city complained at an internal meeting, "according to the current real estate situation, we can't get back the money we want to sell land."

this situation did not improve even in June and July after the property market recovered

according to the statistics from China Index Research Institute, in July, 584 residential lands were sold in 300 cities across the country, with a transaction area of 24.97 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 29%. This shows that the decline of developers' investment intention begins to affect the current "steady growth" strategy

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the overall growth rate of national real estate development investment has dropped to 15.4%; New housing starts dropped by nearly 10%; The growth rate of construction and completion continued to fall; The decline in the area and amount of land purchased continued to expand. These data have a direct impact on employment, domestic demand, and even the direct income of local governments

according to the judgment of the inspection team, one of the important reasons for the formation of market rebound pressure since May is that "there are signs in some places to stimulate housing consumption by relaxing purchase restrictions and issuing house purchase subsidies". However, Zhu Zhongyi also admitted that the desire of some cities to relax regulation stems from the goal of "steady growth" and the pressure of local finance

"at present, 'steady growth' and 'controlling house prices' are in a dilemma, and regulation has entered a critical period." Zhu Zhongyi made such a judgment on the current situation, but he did not provide any solution. In addition to stressing the need to continue to adhere to regulation, the inspection team did not provide a solution

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