The price rise of raw materials, which is more than 10000 yuan/ton, is "fatal" than the high house price. The upstream and downstream game in the plastic industry is white hot
release date: Source: time finance
Miss Zhang witnessed the "Crazy" rise of 50000 square meters in one night after Dongguan's purchase restriction in Shenzhen in mid July last year. Compared with this, raw materials are now soaring, But it made her even more restless - "after all, there is no need to follow the trend to buy a house, but it is impossible not to buy raw materials"
"the rise in raw materials is a 'fatal' rise in prices, which is even worse than high house prices!" On March 13, Miss Zhang, who is engaged in the production of degradable materials in Dongguan, complained to times finance
crude oil is the blood of modern industry. As most plastic raw materials are made of crude oil, the plastic industry is deeply dependent on crude oil. At present, affected by the continuous upward trend of international crude oil prices, the prices of domestic oil related industries continue to rise. In February, the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation industry rose by 7.5%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 4.9%. Plastics and plastic alternative materials at the downstream of the petrochemical chain are also inevitably jumping
in mid July last year, Miss Zhang witnessed the "Crazy" rise of 50000 square meters in Dongguan one night after the purchase restriction in Shenzhen. Compared with the soaring raw materials, she was even more restless - "after all, there is a house to live in, so it is not necessary to follow the trend, but it is impossible not to buy raw materials"
unlike Miss Zhang, Li Cong (a pseudonym), the manager of Xiamen Juyou Chemicals Co., Ltd., told times finance with "high morale" that "this is a game between upstream and downstream, so it depends on who can carry it first"
Li Cong's company is engaged in the downstream product trade of the plastic industry. At present, the plastic chemical production chain is undergoing an unprecedented change. With the promotion of the comprehensive "plastic ban" in Hainan, all parts of the country are promoting the "plastic ban" work, and the countdown to the withdrawal of plastic from the historical stage has begun. Some enterprises are waiting for the "death knell", while others are seeking the transformation to degradable materials
"it must be good to go in the direction of degradability, but it will cost a lot. Because raw materials are too expensive, now many people are waiting and watching." Bingge, the general manager of Anhui binfei Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., sighed at times finance
when the "plastic limit" meets the fatal price rise of raw materials, no one knows which direction the tide will eventually go
soaring raw materials, inflation or speculation
"PBAT (thermoplastic biodegradable plastic) costs only 8000 yuan and sells more than 20000 yuan. What's the reason?" Lao Zhu, who is engaged in the non-woven fabric (PET) business in Hubei Province, told time finance during the tea break of the China biodegradable materials forum held in Foshan on March 11 that he has been in the petrochemical industry for more than ten years since he graduated from University, but this price rise made him feel unreasonable
Lao Zhu said that since the middle of last year, polyethylene (PE), the main raw material of textile fabrics, and calcium carbonate widely used in rubber products have increased by more than 20% to 30%. Moreover, butanediol (BDO), the raw material of organic and fine chemicals, increased the most, up to 50%
"central banks around the world are releasing water. Inflation expectations must be reflected in commodities first. Copper and iron are soaring." Lao Zhu attributed the price rise to the general environment. But the most puzzling thing for old Zhu is, "even if the PBAT is more than 20000 tons, I can't buy it."
bdo is the raw material for the production of degradable materials such as fresh-keeping film and mulch film. Chen Hui (a pseudonym) who is engaged in the production of fresh-keeping film in Dongguan pays special attention to its trend. Chen Hui believes that this round of BDO rise is mainly due to the impact of commodity price rise on supply and demand
he introduced time finance and economics. In February, 2020, Hainan announced the implementation plan for the comprehensive prohibition of the production, sale and use of disposable non degradable plastic products in Hainan Province, which announced that it would promote the comprehensive "Prohibition of plastic products" in the whole province in 2020. Shanxi, Hubei and other provinces are in the preparation stage. However, in the current market, the total amount of various daily necessities made of degradable materials instead of plastics is still very small. The relationship between supply and demand leads to a decrease in the market demand for green building materials during the "1025" period, which can drive the market demand for green building materials of two trillion yuan. Materials are very "hot". In Chen Hui's opinion, BDO has high production capacity, and the current high price is short-term. Lao Zhu believed that the price rise of raw materials was not entirely caused by accidental supply-demand relationship. He speculated that the joint production reduction among giants might lead to this wave of price rise. "There are people in every industry. The most typical industry is crude oil. OPEC has been playing games." For this wave of "unreasonable" price increases, Miss Zhang believes that some people in China are hyping, and this statement is widely spread in the plastic circle. Miss Zhang told time finance that when she attended the China degradable materials forum in Foshan, all the participants joined the group. There was a "unconfirmed news" widely spread in the group - on April 20, 2020, the price of crude oil futures rarely fell to a negative value. On this day, a Shantou man found a business opportunity when everyone was panicking and rushing to ship. Abs15a1 (a kind of plastic material) began to pick up goods at about 9000 per ton, Taiwan Qimei PC material 110 (a kind of plastic material) made a bottom cut at about 11000 per ton, took nearly 1000 tons of plastic inventory, and advocated that fellow villagers and relatives around him take goods in large quantities. His idea is very simple: "if crude oil falls below negative value, we won't see it in our life or even in the future. When will it be more important not to copy the bottom?" Time finance tried to verify whether the information provided by Miss Zhang above was true through multiple channels, but did not draw a conclusion
recently, the big men in the chemical industry are also running around to protest against speculation. With hudezhao, chairman of Guangzhou Baiyun Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd., as the first sponsor, more than 30 members of the CPPCC National Committee, including zhaimeiqing and other entrepreneurs, submitted a joint proposal on the premise of the national "two sessions", calling on the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the national market supervision and administration and other relevant departments to take measures to control the soaring prices of raw materials
the proposal specifically mentions that it is suggested that the government should carry out macro-control over the price fluctuation of raw materials that violate the market rules, track and monitor the hot money that has entered the field of bulk raw materials for speculation, and carry out anti-monopoly investigation on enterprises that abuse their dominant market position, which not only brings convenience to mold manufacturing but also malicious price increases
the game between upstream and downstream is to see who can not bear the
"this is the fastest rise in bulk commodities since the 21st century", Tao Chuan, chief Macro Analyst of Soochow securities, released a public article on March 14, describing this round of price rise. According to statistics, since April 2020, the S & P GSCI commodity index has increased by 87% and the monthly average month on month increase is 5.4%. Since the beginning of this century, the period second only to the current round of growth rate is the period from February 2009 to June 2011, when the bulk growth rate was +3.1% month on month (MOM). As for how long this round of price rise may last, Lao Zhu told times finance and economics that based on his experience, it is expected that this round of price rise of raw materials may last for months. He explained that "inflation expectations will be slowly digested, some sudden soaring demand brought about by the epidemic will also disappear, and prices will be flat at that time."
Li Cong, who has been tracking the price trend of international chemical products for a long time, has a different judgment. The products of Li Cong's company include collagen agent, polyurethane, coking agent, etc., which are used in diapers, fresh-keeping films, etc. He predicted that the chemical products in the next 10 years will not return to the low level in 2020. However, the recent trend of chemical products is more like 2. After startup, the operation of the empty machine depends on the upstream and downstream game
according to Li Cong, despite the soaring price of raw materials, in fact, factories generally do not purchase goods after the Spring Festival. "Factories usually reserve raw materials several months in advance before the Spring Festival holiday. At present, raw materials are rising and there is no market for them. If this situation continues, upstream enterprises will have a backlog of inventory. To a certain extent, they will reduce prices for sales." Li Cong concluded that once the price was reduced, the decline would be large. "Now let's see if the downstream can't support receiving orders or the upstream can't support exchanging goods." Li Cong also mentioned an embarrassing situation. Some downstream enterprises signed orders with domestic and foreign businesses before the Spring Festival. If the enterprise ships at the previously set price, there is no way to change even if the raw materials rise. If the enterprise produces with high priced raw materials, it will lose money
according to CCTV, in the second half of last year, affected by the second outbreak of overseas epidemic, the "housing economy" was staged under the shutdown, the demand for furniture and household goods increased, and made in China was snapped up overseas. Since the third quarter of last year, China's foreign trade exports have accelerated recovery, and the popularity of export orders in furniture, textile and other industries has exceeded market expectations. It can not be ruled out that many downstream enterprises have fallen into the embarrassing situation mentioned by Li Cong
Li Cong's enterprise has taken precautions. At present, it is controlling the shipment volume. It is estimated that the raw materials stored can last until the beginning of April. Zhaoming, general manager of a plastic company in Anhui, thinks that the situation of most plastic chemical enterprises in Anhui is not very optimistic. He told times finance, "at least half of the enterprises are going to lose money."
when the implementation of "plastic limit" encountered high cost of alternative materials
in fact, after the spring of this year, many plastic factories and chemical enterprises have issued price adjustment announcements to customers, including DuPont, SK, Nanya plastic, BASF, Songyuan group, Changchun chemical and other enterprises. According to the we media reports in the field of plastic chemical industry, the price increase in the domestic chemical industry has been overwhelming. The price of some products has increased by more than 10000 tons year-on-year, with a price increase of more than 153%
what if the deadly price rise trend continues? "Find out the materials from the manufacturer." Lao Zhu said that Lao Zhu's factory stored enough raw materials for two months years ago, so the price of the products has not been adjusted yet. However, Lao Zhu frankly said, "we can't carry it back, so we can only raise the price." According to the time financial survey, in addition to considering the production cost and customer maintenance, the price increase range set by the production enterprises is also related to their judgment on the future market of the price increase and the industry trend. If it is judged that the material will decline in the future, the current production may be compressed and the price may be adjusted slightly; If it is judged that the price will continue to rise in the future, it may buy to expand production and adjust the price substantially. For the major plastic chemical manufacturers, the most influential factor in the future market is the policy. At present, many provinces across the country have gradually promoted the comprehensive "plastic ban" work by types. The production of plastics is seeking to transform to the manufacturer of degradable products that replace plastics. But when all this meets the tide of rising prices of raw materials, how can we say "worry"
binge from Anhui told times finance that the production cost would have risen several times since the transformation from plastic production to biodegradable materials. "It used to cost 10 cents a bag, but now it costs 40 cents. Although degradable materials are a sunrise industry, it will cost a lot to transform in this direction." "The most optimistic situation is that as the 'ban on plastic' approaches, more and more raw materials are used to replace plastic, and the price gradually drops, forming a virtuous circle. The 'ban on plastic' can be successfully pushed forward. At present, many manufacturers are still waiting and watching because the price of raw materials is too high."
Cen Li (a pseudonym), who works in the technical department of Shandong Weifang chemical enterprise, told times finance that it can only improve the technical content and further expand the industry to cope with the rise of raw materials
as the province with the largest number of local refineries in China, the capacity of Shandong local refineries accounts for